Seismic stability of houses and possibility of an earthquake in Baku

According to recent scientific research there is a high possibility of strong earthquakes in the world in the time period from 2012 till 2015. More information regarding this issue you will find in the scientific

 publication of Prof. Khalilov.

The observations show that the seismic activity in Azerbaijan and in the region of Baku is activating and also seismic ruptures in earth occur. These are signs of dangerous seismic processes, which occur in the crust. Here, here and here you can read about that.

The quality of many newly built buildings in Baku is bad. In the publication 1 and in the publication 2 consequences of an earthquake in Baku were investigated. It was shown that a strong earthquake in Baku can lead to strong destruction and high human losses. The pictures and curves in this publication show that the probability of damage to newly built houses in case of a strong earthquake is up to 30%. The probability of damage for old houses, which are now being destroyed by the government, is less than 3%. It is interesting to note that scientists estimate the seismic stability of old houses built in еру soviet times higher than the seismic stability of modern new-built mauystories  houses. The Azerbaijan authorities demolish now the good quality old houses and force people to move to new-built houses, which have a poor seismic stability.

The list of strong earthquakes, which took place in Azerbaijan, can be seen here.

Emil Akhundov PhD, the honored builder of Azerbaijan, says that Baku city has the 9th score on the seismic scale and it is not allowed to buid houses with more than 9 stores by using the today's concrete-casting technology. The full article can be read here.